2018-08-26

据海关总署公布数据显示，2018年1-5月份中国累计进口天然气3480万吨（折合473亿立方米），较上年同期的2550.4万吨（折合347亿立方米）增长36.4%，中国进口天然气累计总量首次超过日本（3450万吨）。再加之中国曾经在去年的冬季出现大面积的供气紧张，引起了对中国天然气市场发展的广泛关注。

目前的全球LNG市场呈现出三个基本特点：
一是跨区贸易持续繁荣。位于中东地区的卡塔尔作为世界最大的LNG出口国，2017年LNG出口总量1034亿立方米，占全球LNG贸易量的26.28%，其中出口到亚太地区896亿立方米；居于全球LNG出口国第二位的澳大利亚，同期出口量759亿立方米，几乎全部出口到了亚太地区。美国放开LNG出口限制后，也已经将亚太地位设定为目标市场。

二是LNG出口国和供应国数量持续增加。2000年以来，LNG贸易量从1亿吨增长到了2017年的2.97亿吨。同期，LNG进口国数量翻了四倍，LNG供应国数量实现翻番，亚洲成为LNG贸易最为活跃的地区，2017年贸易量2835亿立方米，占全部LNG贸易量的72.06%。即使长期以来限制国内天然气出口的美国，也在页岩气革命之后因天然气产量快速增长，而开放了天然气出口限制，成为全球LNG出口国的重要潜力国。

三是LNG贸易呈现出更高的灵活性。近年来，LNG现货贸易急剧增长，2017年LNG现货和短期合同贸易量1210亿立方米，同比增长23.4%，占总贸易量的30.77%，而2010年时占比约为20%，上升了约10个百分点。有资料显示，2017年新签LNG合同平均期限在8年以内，大大短于原有长贸合同的20年；合同年度交易量多小于100万吨；现货LNG运输船首次达到1100船，相当于每天3船。

推进天然气价格市场化改革将为提升中国天然气供应能力创造有利条件。虽然从全球范围看，天然气液化能力充足将有利于满足中国天然气增长的需求。但是，我们应该看到，中国的天然气市场还处于发展的初期，还没有完成天然气价格市场化改革，这也是导致当前国内天然气供应紧张的重要原因。就LNG而言，自第一个接收站投运至2017年，中国LNG接收能力增长超过14倍。截至2017年末，中国已建成LNG接收站17座，分布在沿海11个省市，总接收能力5040万吨/年。由于接收能力增长超过LNG进口量增长，中国LNG接收站利用率由2010年的76%下降至2016年的52%。中国目前还有多个接收站在建设过程中，并按计划在2020年左右全部投产，届时总接收能力将达7700万吨/年。预计到2030年，在建和计划建设接收能力为3700万吨/年，总接收能力将超过1亿吨/年。多家机构预测，长期看，中国LNG接收站利用率将维持在50%～60%。未来，LNG接收能力将不再是中国LNG需求的制约因素。

LNG接收站利用率较低与中国潜在的天然气需求快速增长形成新的矛盾。提升LNG供应能力从而满足中国快速增长的天然气消费需求，就必须加快天然气价格市场化改革步伐，由双轨制价格体系向单一市场化价格体系转变，实现管道气价格与LNG价格并轨。

这需要天然气价格改革在巩固现有成果的基础上进一步加大力度。

一是要加快天然气现货市场建设，完善上海石油天然气交易中心、重庆石油天然气交易中心等天然气交易机构的运行，选取更多的天然气需求或供应活跃地区建立区域性的天然气交易中心，建立完整的天然气现货报价体系；

二是要加快天然气期货市场建设，借鉴中国原油期货上市并实施国际化的经验，择机挂牌上市交易，与天然气现货报价体系共同形成中国天然气市场的基准价格，以促进天然气价格市场化，便于以合理的价格吸引更多的国际天然气资源进入中国市场；

三是要加快中国天然气枢纽建设，着眼于活跃天然气现货交易市场和期货市场交割，可以在陕西、宁夏、上海、深圳、川渝地区等天然气管道枢纽地位较为突出或LNG接收设施较为集中、天然气产量较大且稳定增长的地区建设中国天然气枢纽工程，逐渐形成中国的天然气枢纽中心标准价格。

由于LNG价格明显高于管道气价格，只有当管道气不能满足需求时，市场才会选择LNG作为供气来源，具有“不得不用”的特点。这也导致了正在增长中的LNG接收能力利用率将长期维持在50%左右的水平。为此，必须加快天然气价格市场化改革，实行统一的市场化定价机制，加快天然气现货市场、期货市场和枢纽工程建设，形成立体化的天然气价格报价体系，使天然气价格能够充分反映中国的天然气供需状况。

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China imported 34.8 million tons (47.3 billion cubic meters) of natural gas from January to May 2018, up 36.4% from 25.5 billion tons (34.7 billion cubic meters) in the same period of last year, and China’s total import of natural gas exceeded Japan’s (34.5 million tons) for the first time. In addition, China had a large area of gas supply shortage in the winter of last year, causing widespread concern about the development of China’s natural gas market.
The current global LNG market presents three basic characteristics:
First, cross regional trade continues to flourish. As the world’s largest LNG exporter, Qatar in the Middle East exported 103.4 billion cubic meters of LNG in 2017, accounting for 26.28% of the world’s LNG trade, of which 89.6 billion cubic meters were exported to the Asia-Pacific region; Australia, the second largest LNG exporter in the world, exported 75.9 billion cubic meters of LNG in the same period, almost all of which were exported to the Asia-Pacific region. Area. After liberalized the LNG export restrictions, the United States has also set the Asia Pacific position as the target market.
Two, the number of LNG exporting countries and suppliers continues to increase. Since 2000, the volume of LNG trade has increased from 1 billion tons to 2.97 billion tons in 2017. During the same period, the number of LNG importing countries quadrupled, the number of LNG supplying countries doubled, Asia became the most active region of LNG trade, with trade volume of 283.5 billion cubic meters in 2017, accounting for 72.06% of all LNG trade. Even the United States, which has been restricting domestic gas exports for a long time, has opened up restrictions on natural gas exports because of the rapid growth of natural gas production after the shale gas revolution, and has become an important potential exporter of LNG in the world.
Three, LNG trade shows greater flexibility. In recent years, LNG spot trade has increased dramatically. In 2017, LNG spot and short-term contract trade volume was 121 billion cubic meters, up 23.4% year-on-year, accounting for 30.77% of the total trade volume. In 2010, LNG spot trade accounted for about 20%, up about 10 percentage points. Some data show that the average time limit of the new LNG contract in 2017 is less than 8 years, which is much shorter than the 20 years of the original long-term trade contract; the annual volume of the contract is more than 1 million tons; and the spot LNG carrier has reached 1100 ships for the first time, which is equivalent to 3 ships per day.
Promoting the marketization of natural gas prices will create favorable conditions for improving China’s natural gas supply capability. Although from a global perspective, sufficient liquefaction capacity of natural gas will be conducive to meeting China’s growing demand for natural gas. However, we should see that China’s natural gas market is still in the early stages of development, has not yet completed the market-oriented reform of natural gas prices, which is also an important reason for the current shortage of domestic natural gas supply. As far as LNG is concerned, since the first receiving station was put into operation in 2017, China’s LNG receiving capacity has increased by more than 14 times. By the end of 2017, China had built 17 LNG receiving stations, located in 11 coastal provinces and cities, with a total receiving capacity of 50.4 million tons per year. The utilization rate of China’s LNG receiving stations dropped from 76% in 2010 to 52% in 2016 as the growth of receiving capacity exceeded the growth of LNG imports. At present, China still has several receiving stations in the process of construction, and according to the plan to put into operation around 2020, the total receiving capacity will reach 77 million tons per year. It is estimated that by 2030, the receiving capacity under construction and planned construction will be 37 million tons per year, and the total receiving capacity will exceed 100 million tons per year. Many agencies predict that in the long run, the utilization rate of China’s LNG terminals will be maintained at 50% to 60%. In the future, LNG reception capacity will no longer be a constraint factor for China’s LNG demand.
The low utilization rate of LNG terminals and the rapid growth of China’s potential natural gas demand form a new contradiction. To enhance LNG supply capacity to meet China’s fast-growing demand for natural gas consumption, it is necessary to accelerate the pace of market-oriented reform of natural gas prices, change from a two-track price system to a single market-based price system, and realize the merger of pipeline gas prices and LNG prices.
This requires further reform of the natural gas price reform on the basis of consolidating the existing results.
First, we should speed up the construction of natural gas spot market, improve the operation of natural gas trading institutions such as Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange Center and Chongqing Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange Center, select more areas with active natural gas demand or supply to establish regional natural gas trading centers, and establish a complete natural gas spot quotation system.
Second, we should speed up the construction of natural gas futures market, learn from the experience of China’s crude oil futures listing and implementation of internationalization, choose the opportunity to list and trade, and form the benchmark price of China’s natural gas market together with the natural gas spot quotation system, so as to promote the marketization of natural gas prices and facilitate the attraction of more international days at a reasonable price. Natural gas resources enter the Chinese market.
Thirdly, to speed up the construction of China’s natural gas hub, focusing on active natural gas spot trading market and futures market delivery, can be in Shaanxi, Ningxia, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Sichuan and Chongqing areas where the status of natural gas pipeline hub is more prominent or LNG receiving facilities are more centralized, natural gas production is greater and stable growth of the region. China’s natural gas hub project has gradually formed the standard price of China’s natural gas hub.
Because the price of LNG is obviously higher than the price of pipeline gas, only when the pipeline gas can not meet the demand, the market will choose LNG as the source of gas supply, with the “have to use” characteristics. This has also led to an increase in the utilization of LNG in the growing capacity of about 50%. Therefore, it is necessary to speed up the market-oriented reform of natural gas prices, implement a unified market pricing mechanism, speed up the construction of natural gas spot market, futures market and hub projects, and form a three-dimensional natural gas price quotation system, so that natural gas prices can fully reflect the supply and demand of natural gas in China.